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Pacific Ocean remains warm, but continues to cool

Story Added : 04th February 2010

Central Pacific Ocean temperatures remain well above El Niño thresholds, with significant areas east of the date-line continuing to exceed their average by more than 2°C. However, the central to eastern Pacific has continued to cool since the peak of the El Niño warmth in late December and early January. The sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific has also cooled over the last month, which historically indicates that a return to neutral conditions may be under way.

This view is supported by climate models which suggest that tropical Pacific temperatures should gradually ease towards more average values over the coming months, though are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds until the southern autumn.

A weakening of the Trade Winds over the western to central Pacific during the past fortnight, has resulted in a fall in the Southern Oscillation Index and an increase in tropical cloudiness. Although it is likely to be temporary, the cooling of the Pacific may slow as a result of the weakened Trades.

The influence of El Niño events on Australian rainfall typically declines by mid to late summer. We've already seen evidence of this with widespread above average falls across northern Australia in January, and further heavy rain across parts of inland eastern Australia so far in February.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has a reduced impact upon Australia over the summer months.

Source; Bureau of Meteorology